The end of the FHOG and various other government funded benefits could see lower end house prices fall by as much as 10.
The analysis from CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) coincided with ABS figures that showed the number of dwellings bought by owner-occupiers in May 2009 was 29% higher than in October 2008, when the boost to the first home owners grant was introduced.
The number of first home buyer commitments increased from 28.6% in April 2009 to 29.5% in May 2009, the figures revealed.
CBRE’s manager of residential research, Erin Rolandsen, said first home buyers had been instrumental in propping up house prices in the sub $500,000 market.
“The fact that first home buyers have been driving this boom leaves the sub-$500,000 market particularly vulnerable once the boost is reduced from September 2009,” she said.
“In all likelihood, the withdrawal of the FHOG boost at the end of December 2009 and state-based measures in July 2010 will have a dampening effect on the sub $500,000 market, slowing sales transactions and causing price reversals in the sub-$500,000 market towards pre-boost prices.
“We expect falls could reach 10% from the peak in some areas depending on local market conditions.”
Since the boost was introduced, rising house prices had increased the average first home buyer loan by $20,000.
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